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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your squad in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

However the latest field is profoundly unique. The group of nominees is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning conference champions falling away and recent also-rans rising in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still