Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
